Knowledge Drop May 31, 2018 – Eric Dickerson Edition* (#29)
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*Dickerson was perhaps the most famous #29 in the NFL; In 11 seasons he rushed for 2,996 yards (that one damn holding call on the center!!), collected 2,137 receiving yards and 96 total TDs. And, of course, the goggles.
TOP KNOWLEDGE — WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW RIGHT NOW
WHO WERE THE NFL’S 2017 TOP BUTTERFINGER WIDE RECEIVERS?
Every Fantasy football player has been there. Your wide receiver is wide open with only a field of green ahead of him – an easy six points for sure.
Not so fast. He drops the ball.
He took his eyes off the ball; he heard thundering footsteps approaching him from behind. Maybe he’s just not that coordinated. The why doesn’t matter, it’s the pain of a lost opportunity.
Today we’re going to look at those wide receivers who most often disappointed their owners last season. But before we do that, let’s look back at 2016, so that we can (maybe) make better decisions about those who most often had the dropsies last year.
I made a list of WRs with 25 or more receptions in 2016, yielding 95 wide receivers. Then I divided their number of drops against their number of receptions to represent drops as a percentage of catches. Below I listed every player with a 12 percent figure or higher, yielding 25 names
|Ted Ginn Jr.||54||7||13.0%|
|Will Fuller V||47||6||12.8%|
|Marvin Jones Jr.||55||7||12.7%|
|Allen Robinson II||73||9||12.3%|
So what happened to these names in 2017? Well, to start, only 12 of them caught at least 25 passes again in 2017 due to injury or performance. Of those 12, only two receivers recorded a worse “drop/rec percentage” (JJ Nelson, Tyrell Williams).
Despite dropping a lower percentage of passes, only three of the 10 others even saw an increase in targets. Nelson Agholor showed great improvement in the 2017 season; Marvin Jones saw a tiny increase in targets (105 to 101) last season, and Robby Anderson saw more targets due in part to Quincy Enunwa’s season-long injury for the Jets.
- 25 players had drop-to-reception percentages of 12.0 percent or higher (min. 25 catches)
- Only 12 of those players caught 25 or more passes again in 2017;
- Of that group, just three saw an increase in targets despite better drop-to-reception rates from 10 out of 12.
Three players of 25, or 12 percent, saw more targets the season after a 12 percent drop-to-reception rate.
So the natural question now is: Who were the butterfingers of 2017. Thankfully, there were only 13 players who hit the 12 percent mark last season, so I expanded our list to the 10 percent and above threshold:
|Paul Richardson Jr.||44||8||18.2%|
|Will Fuller V||28||3||10.7%|
This is generally a new set of names, indicating a high-drop percentage is not a consistent stat. But beware JJ Nelson and Tyrell Williams nonetheless. Three Chargers (Ty. Williams, Benjamin, Ke. Allen) and three Broncos (Fowler, D. Thomas, E. Sanders) is notable….maybe. Seeing Amari Cooper and Dez Bryant on this list is intriguing as well.
So what have we learned?
- Having the dropsies seems to be a random “non-skill” in general;
- If you do have a high drop percentage you’re very likely to see fewer targets in the following season;
- It’s all about the targets. A player can have his Fantasy scoring greatly affected by a high, or low, number of TDs collected, but production ebbs and flows with targets (or touches), a notion that we will explore further this summer. Stay tuned.
A THOUSAND WORDS
Today @BatFlipCrazy says Luke Weaver is a mixed bag in 2018:
Wasn’t high on Luke Weaver headed into the season & while the results so far haven’t been good, there’s reason for hope. Over his last 5 starts: O-swing: 34.1% SwStr: 10.8% F-strike: 60.4% Zone: 39.7%* Increase in o-swing % compensates for decrease in zone %
Follow @BatFlipCrazy on Twitter and read more in-depth data analysis at batflipcrazy.com
RIDDLE ME THIS
Adam and Eve play rock-paper-scissors 10 times. You know that:
- Adam uses rock three times, scissors six times, and paper once.
- Eve uses rock twice, scissors four times, and paper four times.
- There are no ties in all 10 games.
- The order of games is unknown.
Who wins? By how much?
Email your guess to BigMacFantasySports@gmail.com
Tuesday’s Riddle: You are in a room that has three switches and a closed door. Each switch controls one of three light bulbs on the other side of the door. Once you open the door, you may never touch the switches again. How can you definitively tell which switch is connected to each of the light bulbs?
Answer: Turn two of the switches to the “on” position and wait 5 minutes. Turn one of the switches off and go into the room. One light will be on, which is controlled by the switch still in the “on” position; one bulb will be warm, so it is controlled by the switch you turned off and the last bulb is controlled by the switch you never touched.
DAD JOKE OF THE DAY
Because bad jokes fuel our world.
What’s the best day to cook?