Knowledge Drop June 5, 2018 – Mike Piazza Edition* (31)
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*With all due respect to Greg Maddux, the best #31 in MLB history, any Mets fan has to pay tribute to Piazza, who was, simply, too good a hitter to be a Met. Forget his lifetime stats, Big Mac and most New Yorkers think of this post 9/11 moment whenever Piazza’s name is mentioned.
TOP KNOWLEDGE — WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW RIGHT NOW
Mookie Betts, Brandon Crawford and Hitters Due For A Cool June
As we mentioned Sunday, June 1 is a key Fantasy baseball date. At this point, your team is your team. If your team is struggling, you need a Plan B immediately or you’ll never climb out of the hole.
During the season, we like to scan the stats from the last 3-4 weeks to see who is overperforming, who is falling short, and who might surprise us in the next month. So for this column we looked first at the top hitters, by average, since May 1. These are generally considered the hot players and this gives us about a five-week span to investigate:
In our “Crush or Flush” columns in the spring, we identified Crawford and Castellanos as players we loved (we were Crushing on them). Great performances by Betts and Lindor are generally expected but who picked Ben Gamel and Nick Markakis for breakouts?
League average BABIP is generally .295 – .300, but hitters with speed or power often put up career .350 BABIPs. So looking at this list, Betts and Lindor are only a tick above what we’d expect. We like Crawford, but a .468 BABIP is as likely as Bartolo Colon passing up the post-game spread for rice cakes for a month. He and Gennett will fall hard. They won’t necessary hit .200 in June, but .422 and .390 are off the table.
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, hitters with the lowest averages, is not necessarily the reverse exercise as the above.
Paul Goldschmidt with a .188 BABIP? We’ve chronicled Goldschmidt’s woes in a previous column. We still think he has either an injury or a vision issue. We’d put him on the 10-day DL with a fake injury, clear his head, and get him some swings in a place far, far away from Chase Field.
Obviously, the lower average hitters will have low BABIPs, but at the top of the list – Gregor Blanco – you see a hitter who’s just not good. It’s sad for us to see Curtis Granderson limp to retirement and Cole Colhoun is playing himself into an independent minor league career.
Didi Gregorius was due to cool, but this has been extreme. Expect him to find a middle ground in June, especially if he can find that short porch in right field a few times.
Hoskins suffered a sophomore slump before his injury, so his 2018 is up in the air. Most of the other names will need to get hot for at least 2-3 weeks before being Fantasy relevant.
We broke down only average here, but you can do this exercise across any and all statistics. When you do, pay attention to the underlying stats as well – they tell the real story.
A THOUSAND WORDS
Today @BatFlipCrazy checks in on the sensation that is Max Muncy:
Checking back in on Max Muncy: If he keeps the skills up (big if), production should continue. Skills = 🔥 Last 20 games: O-swing: 19.6% Contact: 79.5% Hard: 51.1% FB: 46.8% wOBA: .431 / xwOBA: .468 Barrels/PA: 12.7% for season (5th in MLB > 50 BIP) # #
Follow @BatFlipCrazy on Twitter and read more in-depth data analysis at batflipcrazy.com
RIDDLE ME THIS
How much dirt is there in a hole that measures two feet by three feet by four feet?
Email your guess to BigMacFantasySports@gmail.com
DAD JOKE OF THE DAY
What do you call a group of baby soldiers?
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
“Billions” is the show that Netflix hoped “House of Cards” would become. We make sure to watch the latest episode within days. See if you can spot former LA Law and Major League star Corbin Bernsen in the latest episode. If you don’t have Showtime, find a friend who does and watch it with them. (We would never suggest asking them for their Showtime Anytime password. Heavens, no.)
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