Early ADPs Help Plan Your Foundation, Stop Drafting Gronk So Early, a Nick Ahmed Reference

Knowledge Drop June 21, 2018 – Pat Summerall Edition* (#38)

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*On this first day of Summer, we remember the voice of the NFL for a generation of fans. As a player, Summerall was successful on 97 percent of extra points (257 of 265) and on 47 percent of field goals (100 of 212).  In 1959 his 69 percent rate led the league.  Different game then, huh?

 


TOP KNOWLEDGE — WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW RIGHT NOW

Early ADPs Help You Plan Your Team’s Foundation or Stop Drafting Gronk So Early!!

We’re creeping closer to the NFL season and – duh – your NFL Fantasy season.

So Big Mac Fantasy Sports is thrilled to provide you with the latest NFL rankings from FantasyPros.  We hope you click on them, use them, toss them up and down and find any nugget of information that will help you dominate your draft and win your league. (We also have MLB Rest-of-Season rankings as well).

With that in mind, we are going to look at the top of NFL Fantasy drafts today.  We’re looking at roughly the top 36-40 picks, or your first three or four round.  We’ll use Standard league scoring ADPs for now; don’t worry – we will do plenty of PPR work this summer, as Big Mac likes Big Points, so we will definitely go there (AND two-QB leagues too).

Round 1:

Rank Player Team POS AVG
1 Todd Gurley LAR RB1 1.2
2 Le’Veon Bell PIT RB2 2
3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB3 3.2
4 David Johnson ARI RB4 4
5 Antonio Brown PIT WR1 4.8
6 Alvin Kamara NO RB5 6
7 Saquon Barkley NYG RB6 8.2
8 DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR2 8.2
9 Kareem Hunt KC RB7 8.4
10 Melvin Gordon LAC RB8 10.6
11 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG WR3 10.8
12 Leonard Fournette JAC RB9 11

 

We are clearly back to “old school Fantasy football” drafting.  Get your RB in round one – period. As I’ve written in the past, I would not take Todd Gurley at the top of the draft.  Le’Veon Bell, to me, is the best option.  Choosing one or the other isn’t going to tank your team (unless: injury), but I think Bell is consistent and Gurley’s lofty status is due to his 2017 TD totals.  We rank and draft largely from recent memory and history.  Think more about what’s most likely to happen.  Most likely, Bell will score more points and have the best shot at the best RB performance in 2018.

I’m a huge Alvin Kamara fan. In a PPR league, you have my permission to draft him #1 overall. His rookie season was obviously impressive, but he emerged week-by-week through the first half to become a dominant force. I don’t tend to draft sophomore players in the first round because the top of the draft should be about sure things. But I think Kamara is a sure thing.

Let someone else draft Saquon Barkley in round one.  I get that he’s more exciting than Melvin Gordon, but do you remember that TD he scored for the Giants in Week 3 last year?  Of course you don’t because he’s never taken an NFL snap.  Never had a charging linebacker bearing down on him. Never had to figure out where an Eli Manning pass will be, since it probably won’t be on his numbers (Love you, Eli!).

We urge you to take a RB in round 1.  There are fewer RBs than WRs; there are fewer bell-cow backs than almost any other time.  Get a stud, but get a lot of RBs.  Ask the guy who drafted David Johnson number 1 last year (when he should have drafted Bell anyway).

After about pick 5 or 6, it’s hard to assess who or what to do in your draft without considering the top of the 2nd round. If you pick in the second half of round one, you really must make your first-round selection with a strong knowledge of what you’ll do in the 2nd round also.

Let’s look at Round 2:

13 Julio Jones ATL WR4 13
14 Dalvin Cook MIN RB10 14.2
15 Michael Thomas NO WR5 15.4
16 Keenan Allen LAC WR6 17
17 Davante Adams GB WR7 18.4
18 A.J. Green CIN WR8 19
19 LeSean McCoy BUF RB11 19.2
20 Devonta Freeman ATL RB12 19.2
21 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB13 20.8
22 Mike Evans TB WR9 23
23 Rob Gronkowski NE TE1 24.2
24 Jordan Howard CHI RB14 25.8

 

Why does every league have a Gronkowski knucklehead who thinks he’s so smart.  Dude will miss four games and you’re missing out on top WR/RB talent at that part of the draft.  He’s not even the best TE over a full season.  Whenever the word “retirement” is attached to a player in the off-season I tend to shy away because now we are talking about heart and commitment.  And I just hate Gronk – I think he’s a dick – so there’s that.

Okay, so if you’re picking late in first round the play seems to be RB in one and WR in two, or vice versa.  So decide which combos of players you want.  Is Melvin Gordon/Michael Thomas stronger than Odell Beckham Jr. and Dalvin Cook?  I tend to grab two RBs anyway and then select WRs in 3 and or 4. I view the WR position like I do pitchers in baseball.  I don’t need the best, but if I can collect a bunch of guys who will be Fantasy WR2 at the end of the season, I’ve covered myself. I think Melvin Gordon and Dalvin Cook is a solid foundation, but WRs are flashy so I realize I’m in the minority here.

I’m a strong proponent of building a clear strength on your team. Draft the clear best collection of running backs in your league.  Or take DeAndre Hopkins AND A.J. Green. Develop a dominant aspect to your team. If you draft smartly, you’ll find the value players later in your draft – comeback players, rookies, players who emerge due to a teammate injury.  And if you don’t, you could surely use an A.J. Green as a trade chip to fill a hole later. But the spread-around-the-talent approach often leaves gaping holes after your first major injury.

To Round 3 we go:

25 Jerick McKinnon SF RB15 25.8
26 Tyreek Hill KC WR10 27.2
27 Adam Thielen MIN WR11 27.6
28 Travis Kelce KC TE2 27.8
29 Doug Baldwin SEA WR12 29.4
30 Aaron Rodgers GB QB1 31
31 Joe Mixon CIN RB16 31
32 Zach Ertz PHI TE3 33.6
33 Derrick Henry TEN RB17 33.8
34 Kenyan Drake MIA RB18 35.4
35 T.Y. Hilton IND WR13 35.6
36 Stefon Diggs MIN WR14 37
37 Josh Gordon CLE WR15 37.6
38 Amari Cooper OAK WR16 40.2
39 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR17 40.4
40 Jay Ajayi PHI RB19 42

 

I went to #40 to provide a few more options.  So if you do draft Gordon and Cook, how nice will it be to have Stefon Diggs as your #1 WR? If you took WRs up top, Kenyan Drake and Jay Ajayi provide real (potentially huge) value here. Our first QB shows up and top TEs Kelce and Ertz are smarter choices than a Round 2 Gronk.  We’d still tell you to wait because most of your league will have “just okay” TEs and the teams who draft the Gronks, Kelces and Ertzs in the first three rounds will be fishing for WR/RB talent throughout the draft.

Spend some time with these top 40 ADP players to think about your team’s foundation built in the first three rounds. The fourth round sees a pretty quick increase in risk factors, injury histories and less-than-sure-things.  But knowing who you might build the bottom of your team’s pyramid ahead of time will shape smart choices throughout the draft.  


A THOUSAND WORDS

Today @BatFlipCrazy is providing perhaps the first ever Nick Ahmed reference in Fantasy sports history:

Not sure whether it’s just the quality of pitching, but Nick Ahmed’s last week or so has seen a career high 10-game hard hit rate (60.7%) coupled with a near career-high o-swing (22.8%). Worth monitoring.


RIDDLE ME THIS

Why did a man born in November celebrate his birthday in the summer?

 

Email your guess to BigMacFantasySports@gmail.com

Tuesday’s Riddle: In 1990, a person is 15 years old. In 1995 that same person is 10 years old. How is this possible?

Nobody proffered a correct guess, which would have been “The years were BC.”

 

 


DAD JOKE OF THE DAY

What did the fried rice say to the shrimp?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don’t wok away from me.


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