NFL Butterfinger WRs, Luke Weaver’s Mixed Bag, Dickerson’s Goggles

Knowledge Drop May 31, 2018 – Eric Dickerson Edition* (#29)

Thanks for reading BMFS. Tom McFeeley and his team drop Fantasy Knowledge at least 3x a week, online and straight to your inbox. Please send us your comments and say hello, at bigmacfantasysports@gmail.com

*Dickerson was perhaps the most famous #29 in the NFL; In 11 seasons he rushed for 2,996 yards (that one damn holding call on the center!!), collected 2,137 receiving yards and 96 total TDs.  And, of course, the goggles.

 


TOP KNOWLEDGE — WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW RIGHT NOW

WHO WERE THE NFL’S 2017 TOP BUTTERFINGER WIDE RECEIVERS?

Every Fantasy football player has been there. Your wide receiver is wide open with only a field of green ahead of him – an easy six points for sure.

Not so fast. He drops the ball.

He took his eyes off the ball; he heard thundering footsteps approaching him from behind. Maybe he’s just not that coordinated.  The why doesn’t matter, it’s the pain of a lost opportunity.

Today we’re going to look at those wide receivers who most often disappointed their owners last season.  But before we do that, let’s look back at 2016, so that we can (maybe) make better decisions about those who most often had the dropsies last year.

I made a list of WRs with 25 or more receptions in 2016, yielding 95 wide receivers. Then I divided their number of drops against their number of receptions to represent drops as a percentage of catches. Below I listed every player with a 12 percent figure or higher, yielding 25 names

Player REC DROP DROP/REC
Seth Roberts 38 9 23.7%
Quincy Enunwa 58 12 20.7%
Allen Hurns 35 7 20.0%
Nelson Agholor 36 7 19.4%
J.J. Nelson 34 6 17.6%
Dorial Green-Beckham 36 6 16.7%
Tavon Austin 58 9 15.5%
Breshad Perriman 33 5 15.2%
Michael Floyd 33 5 15.2%
Michael Crabtree 89 13 14.6%
Robby Anderson 42 6 14.3%
Jeremy Maclin 44 6 13.6%
Tyrell Williams 69 9 13.0%
Ted Ginn Jr. 54 7 13.0%
Victor Cruz 39 5 12.8%
Will Fuller V 47 6 12.8%
Marvin Jones Jr. 55 7 12.7%
Malcolm Mitchell 32 4 12.5%
Allen Robinson II 73 9 12.3%
Julian Edelman 98 12 12.2%
Brian Quick 41 5 12.2%
Cameron Meredith 66 8 12.1%
Corey Coleman 33 4 12.1%
Phillip Dorsett 33 4 12.1%
Davante Adams 75 9 12.0%

 

So what happened to these names in 2017?  Well, to start, only 12 of them caught at least 25 passes again in 2017 due to injury or performance. Of those 12, only two receivers recorded a worse “drop/rec percentage” (JJ Nelson, Tyrell Williams).

Despite dropping a lower percentage of passes, only three of the 10 others even saw an increase in targets. Nelson Agholor showed great improvement in the 2017 season; Marvin Jones saw a tiny increase in targets (105 to 101) last season, and Robby Anderson saw more targets due in part to Quincy Enunwa’s season-long injury for the Jets.

To summarize:

  • 25 players had drop-to-reception percentages of 12.0 percent or higher (min. 25 catches)
  • Only 12 of those players caught 25 or more passes again in 2017;
  • Of that group, just three saw an increase in targets despite better drop-to-reception rates from 10 out of 12.

Three players of 25, or 12 percent, saw more targets the season after a 12 percent drop-to-reception rate.

So the natural question now is: Who were the butterfingers of 2017.  Thankfully, there were only 13 players who hit the 12 percent mark last season, so I expanded our list to the 10 percent and above threshold:

 

Player REC DROPS D-to-R %
Ricardo Louis 27 7 25.9%
J.J. Nelson 29 7 24.1%
Amari Cooper 48 10 20.8%
Torrey Smith 36 7 19.4%
Zay Jones 27 5 18.5%
Paul Richardson Jr. 44 8 18.2%
Dez Bryant 69 12 17.4%
Donte Moncrief 26 4 15.4%
Dede Westbrook 27 4 14.8%
Marqise Lee 56 8 14.3%
Tyrell Williams 43 6 14.0%
Bennie Fowler 29 4 13.8%
Demaryius Thomas 83 10 12.0%
Travis Benjamin 34 4 11.8%
Cooper Kupp 62 7 11.3%
Keenan Allen 102 11 10.8%
Brandin Cooks 65 7 10.8%
Marquise Goodwin 56 6 10.7%
Kenny Golladay 28 3 10.7%
Will Fuller V 28 3 10.7%
Emmanuel Sanders 47 5 10.6%
Jamison Crowder 66 7 10.6%
Michael Crabtree 58 6 10.3%
Bruce Ellington 29 3 10.3%
TJ Jones 30 3 10.0%

This is generally a new set of names, indicating a high-drop percentage is not a consistent stat.  But beware JJ Nelson and Tyrell Williams nonetheless. Three Chargers (Ty. Williams, Benjamin, Ke. Allen) and three Broncos (Fowler, D. Thomas, E. Sanders) is notable….maybe. Seeing Amari Cooper and Dez Bryant on this list is intriguing as well.

So what have we learned?

  • Having the dropsies seems to be a random “non-skill” in general;
  • If you do have a high drop percentage you’re very likely to see fewer targets in the following season;
  • It’s all about the targets. A player can have his Fantasy scoring greatly affected by a high, or low, number of TDs collected, but production ebbs and flows with targets (or touches), a notion that we will explore further this summer. Stay tuned.

A THOUSAND WORDS

Today @BatFlipCrazy says Luke Weaver is a mixed bag in 2018:

Wasn’t high on Luke Weaver headed into the season & while the results so far haven’t been good, there’s reason for hope. Over his last 5 starts: O-swing: 34.1% SwStr: 10.8% F-strike: 60.4% Zone: 39.7%*   Increase in o-swing % compensates for decrease in zone %

Follow @BatFlipCrazy on Twitter and read more in-depth data analysis at batflipcrazy.com


RIDDLE ME THIS

Adam and Eve play rock-paper-scissors 10 times. You know that:

  • Adam uses rock three times, scissors six times, and paper once.
  • Eve uses rock twice, scissors four times, and paper four times.
  • There are no ties in all 10 games.
  • The order of games is unknown.

Who wins? By how much?

Email your guess to BigMacFantasySports@gmail.com

Tuesday’s Riddle: You are in a room that has three switches and a closed door. Each switch controls one of three light bulbs on the other side of the door. Once you open the door, you may never touch the switches again. How can you definitively tell which switch is connected to each of the light bulbs?

Answer: Turn two of the switches to the “on” position and wait 5 minutes. Turn one of the switches off and go into the room. One light will be on, which is controlled by the switch still in the “on” position; one bulb will be warm, so it is controlled by the switch you turned off and the last bulb is controlled by the switch you never touched.

 


DAD JOKE OF THE DAY

Because bad jokes fuel our world.

What’s the best day to cook?

 

Fry day.


WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
The Americans, one of the most vastly under-rated shows this decade, concluded its six-year run last night. We are going to binge the last season in the coming days and you should binge all six seasons if you haven’t watched yet.

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