Knowledge Drop June 7, 2018 – Christian McCaffrey Edition* (32)
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*McCaffrey, who turns 21 today, can toast himself and his 2017’s 1,086 combined yards (651 through the air) in 10 starts last season. He hauled in 80 passes and scored 7 touchdowns in his rookie season.
TOP KNOWLEDGE — WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW RIGHT NOW
Saquon Barkley and NFL Rookie ADPs
In life and in Fantasy football, everyone likes the promise of something new, something unknown. We envision the best outcome and, frankly, it’s more interesting than the familiar thing that will produce a fairly predictable output.
Enter the rookies.
We wanted to take a look at where the 2018 rookie class was being drafted in the earliest of drafts. So we did. Be warned – we put little to no weight on these ADPs for a couple of reasons. Number one, relatively few leagues have drafted so far of course. Number two, anyone drafting this early is more likely to be either familiar with or excited about players that were very recently drafted.
We would expect many of these ADPs to fall back throughout the summer. Only pre-season performances and, well, Hard Knocks, will move rookie draft positions up much.
Here are where the rookies are being drafted, by position.
- Saquon Barkley, 7
- Derrius Guice, 44
- Sony Michel, 58
- Ronald Jones, 60
- Royce Freeman, 74
- Kerryon Johnson, 92
- Nick Chubb, 98
- Nyheim Hines, 125
- Kalen Ballage, 198
- John Kelly, 201
- Mark Walton, 299
- Josh Adams, 314
- Calvin Ridley, 131
- DJ Moore, 132
- Michael Gallup, 152
- Christian Kirk, 194
- Anthony Miller, 230
- Tre’Quan Smith, 241
- Courtland Sutton, 265
- James Washington, 271
- Dante Pettis, 289
- Mike Gesicki, 182
- Dallas Goedert, 306
- Mark Andrews, 331
- Sam Darnold, 236
- Lamar Jackson, 240
- Baker Mayfield, 268
- Josh Rosen, 287
- Josh Allen, 288
Again, we urge you to treat these numbers with very little credence for right now, but do know that early ADPs often are the foundation of drafting patterns as the season draws near. We do have some observations however.
Seven rookie running backs in the first 100 draft picks is stupid. This shouldn’t hold and if it does, you must take advantage by grabbing reliable established options in these rounds. We’re not saying you can’t draft Chubb in your 8th or 10th round, but we are saying this love affair with new running backs will leave a lot of value on the draft board.
On the flip side, there are no rookie WRs in the top 100. These trends speak to the depth of talent at these respective positions. You simply don’t *need* a rookie wideout to be successful this season. But clearly, early drafters believe you *need* rookie backs to at least contribute to success. Plus running backs have shorter careers and do adjust to the NFL easier than wide receivers.
Saquon Barkley at number 7 is stupider than seven backs in the top 100. The first round must be about as close to guaranteed value as you can get. Barkley may very well be the generational running back people say he is. But talk and speculation won’t win your league; performance will. Do we really think he’ll be the seventh best player in the NFL (for Fantasy purposes) in 2018? Color me skeptical. Now if you have a late first round pick we might suggest taking a running back and seeing if you can get Barkley on the turn. That’s a huge upside pick and Barkley should easily be a RB2. But your foundation? Not so fast.
Sony Michel at 58 is not wise either. He’s a Patriots running back. Has a Belichick RB ever been used in a predictable way? That slot might be okay, depending on how often they use him and in what capacities, but I don’t know that yet. And I wouldn’t trust anything the franchise says about player usage in the pre-season.
We thought it was mildly interesting that Lamar Jackson was drafted ahead of Mayfield, Rosen and Allen. Again, it’s early, and we may actually agree with that notion, but in 1 QB leagues, you’re talking 3rd string QBs anyway, right?
We love the Freeman, Johnson and Chubb draft slots. At that point in your draft you should have two “take it to the bank” running backs and we like their potential in 2018 more than some names ahead of them. But we’ll watch each name closely this summer.
So that’s the early look at Rookie Fest 2018. If there is a rookie you like to make an impact this season, track his ADP, particularly on the site on which you draft. Is there a rookie you like to make a splash this season that you don’t see listed? Hit us up at firstname.lastname@example.org
A THOUSAND WORDS
Today @BatFlipCrazy says Rafael Devers is selling out:
Rafael Devers has sold out quality contact (hard %) for contact recently. Last 20 G: O-swing: 34.8% Contact: 74.9% Hard: 26.9% FB: 49.0% Increased FB% isn’t bad, but a 5% increase in his pop up % (21% of BIP), combined with low contact, drains AVG.
Follow @BatFlipCrazy on Twitter and read more in-depth data analysis at batflipcrazy.com
RIDDLE ME THIS
There are five bags of gold that all look identical, and each has ten gold pieces in it. One of the five bags has fake gold in it. The real gold, fake gold, and all five bags are identical in every way, except the pieces of fake gold each weigh 1.1 grams, and the real gold pieces each weigh 1 gram. You have a perfectly accurate digital gram scale and can use it only once. How do you determine which bag has the fake gold?
Email your guess to BigMacFantasySports@gmail.com
Tuesday’s Riddle: How much dirt is there in a hole that measures two feet by three feet by four feet?
Congrats to Ginardo Napoli, the first reader to correctly guess the answer is “Zero.” There is no dirt in a hole
DAD JOKE OF THE DAY
What kind of bread bakes in the bathroom?
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